[Soybean Talks]People say Ohtani doesn’t have enough innings to win the Cy Young. After studying the data for twenty years, I disagree.

In the 2026 season, Shohei Ohtani returned to the pitcher’s mound. Since the beginning of the season, he has shown epic dominance with an ERA of less than 1.00 and a very high strikeout rate! With his full firepower, is it possible for him to win his first career Cy Young Award this year? But whenever Ohtani’s Cy Young opportunity is discussed, there is always a voice: “The Dodgers use a six-man rotation. Even if Ohtani is at full attendance, he will probably only have 150 to 160 innings in the entire season. If there are not enough innings, there will be no Cy Young.” Is this deeply rooted statement supported by advanced baseball data (Sabermetrics)? Where is the invisible “bottom line” drawn? Is it 162 innings, 175 innings, or does it not exist at all? In order to solve this century-old myth of the major leagues, I compiled all the data from more than 40 league seasons from 2003 to 2025. The results revealed a surprising fact: the pitchers who pitched the most innings in the past 20 years actually won only 25% of the Cy Young Awards! Betting more is no longer a guarantee of winning. To this end, I abandoned the current mainstream but flawed traditional additive prediction formulas of ESPN (Bill James) and FanGraphs (Tom Tango), and exclusively developed a new “Soybean Celeron Prediction Formula”: (2 × bWAR + 1 × fWAR) / ERA. This division formula accurately captures the psychology of the modern Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) voting committee! Among the Cy Young Award winners who have been back-tested for nearly ten years, the prediction hit rate of this formula is an astonishing 94%! Not only does it perfectly explain how Jacob deGrom crushed his opponents with 10 wins in 2018 and accurately hit Corbin Burnes’ extreme data reversal in 2021, it also ruthlessly reveals the cruel truth of why top relief pitchers like Mason Miller, who has an ERA of 1.20 and a strikeout rate of over 55%, are limited by the structural ceiling of WAR and can never win a Cy Young Award again. Of course, the most interesting thing about baseball is that it is made up of “people.” Each generation’s formula is a mirror of journalists’ voting logic. The formula has its limits, just like Rick Porcello’s extreme results in 2016 that made all data unreasonable. But through data, we can clearly see the evolution of modern baseball: wins have declined, and defensive efficiency and WAR are the real kings. Does Otani Shohei have a chance this year? As long as he meets “the conditions” analyzed in the film, the Cy Young Award will definitely not be a dream! Click play now and follow Soybean into the hard-core world of advanced baseball data! ⏱️【Video Chapter Timestamps】 00:00 Crazy plan: I want to use a formula to crack the logic of the Cy Young Award! 00:18 Shohei Ohtani’s Cy Young road and the fatal injury of “not enough innings” 01:05 Data revealed in the past 20 years: More innings is not an advantage at all? 02:22 Is 162 games really the threshold? The brutal showdown between Kershaw and Scherzer 03:13 Actual measurement of the hit rate of the five traditional statistics: the defense rate is only 50%! 03:46 The year that changed baseball history: 2018 Jacob deGrom 04:30 The big blind spot of traditional prediction formulas: Why are ESPN and Tom Tango inaccurate? 06:28[The birth of Soybean’s original formula](2BWAR + 1FWAR) / ERA 07:31 Formula hitting rate showdown! 94% terrifying prediction power 08:26 Formula’s accurate case and rollover boundary: Burnes and Porcello 09:32 Why do relief pitchers never win Cy Youngs? Mason Miller’s Extreme 11:08 The Mirror of Voting Logic: What Do Modern Journalists Really Value? 12:23 The ultimate calculation of Shohei Ohtani’s chances of winning the Cy Young Award in 2026! 13:34 Conclusion and exclusive benefits for channel members 13:42 🎁 Book donation lottery method and LINE community information 🎁[Exclusive lottery for this episode]In order to thank everyone for supporting Doudou Talking Ball, in this episode we will draw two awesome physical books of baseball data! 👉 Activity time: From now until 23:59 next Saturday. 👉 How to participate: Subscribe to the “Soybean Talking Ball” YouTube channel and turn on the little bell. Like this video and leave a comment below: “(Feel free to leave a message) + I want to use the soybean formula to calculate Shohei Ohtani!”. Click the link below to join our exclusive LINE community! (The winning list will be announced simultaneously on the LINE community and YouTube community posts next Sunday, so please pay attention!) ⚾[Join the exclusive community of Soybean Talking Ball]💬 Soybean Talking Ball LINE community: [此處放您的 LINE 社群連結]
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